Monday, August 28, 2006

Third Time's a Charm

"Patience yields a higher reward." - G-man

***** Hand History for Game 5014482594 *****
0.50/1 Texas Hold'em Game Table (Limit) - Wed Aug 23 23:03:04 EDT 2006
Table Wanderlust (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: freecat17 ( $26)
Seat 3: stormy455 ( $17.92)
Seat 4: TeeVeeDude ( $12.50)
Seat 6: G_man123 ( $17)
Seat 7: Colonus ( $39.88)
Seat 8: The_Vegan ( $26.87)
Seat 9: hlfgg ( $16)
Seat 10: nowhen2fold6 ( $19)
hlfgg posts small blind (0.25)
nowhen2fold6 posts big blind (0.50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to G_man123 [ Td, Qd ]
freecat17 folds.
TeeVeeDude folds.
G_man123 calls (0.50)
Colonus folds.
The_Vegan folds.
hlfgg calls (0.25)
nowhen2fold6 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Jd, Kd, Ad ]
hlfgg checks.
nowhen2fold6 checks.
G_man123 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kh ]
hlfgg checks.
nowhen2fold6 checks.
G_man123 checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ Qc ]
hlfgg bets (1)
nowhen2fold6 folds.
G_man123 raises (2) to 2
hlfgg calls (1)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $5 | Rake: $0.50
Board: [ Jd Kd Ad Kh Qc ]

freecat17 balance $26, didn't bet (folded)
stormy455 balance $17.92, sits out
TeeVeeDude balance $12.50, didn't bet (folded)
G_man123 balance $19.50, bet $2.50, collected $5, net +$2.50 [ Td Qd ] [ Royal Flush -- Ad,Kd,Qd,Jd,Td ]
Colonus balance $39.88, didn't bet (folded)
The_Vegan balance $26.87, didn't bet (folded)
hlfgg balance $13.50, lost $2.50 [ 5h Th ] [ a straight, ten to ace -- Ad,Kd,Qc,Jd,Th ]

nowhen2fold6 balance $18.50, lost $0.50 (folded)

Thursday, August 24, 2006

My Services are in High Demand

Email strings are like watching the movie Memento -- they give me the urge to re-edit them in the right order so I don't have to follow the story in reverse chron.


From: G-man
Sent: Tuesday, August 22, 2006 7:46 PM
To: Recruiting Coordinator
Subject: Re:

Hint -- The blackberry is a radio frequency device.

-----Original Message-----
From: Recruiting Coordinator
To: G-man
Sent: Tue Aug 22 19:43:07 2006
Subject: RE:

Roger Wilco (Space Quest), the main character in the Space Quest series of video games.
Roger Wilco (software), the name of a voice-chat software program.
Roger Wilco (Get Fuzzy), the brother of Robert (Rob) Wilco in the comic strip Get Fuzzy.
Roger, Wilco an abbreviation in radio terminology (see voice procedure) meaning "Received, Will Comply".

-----Original Message-----
From: G-man
Sent: Tuesday, August 22, 2006 7:42 PM
To: Recruiting Coordinator
Subject: Re:

If u don't get it, google it.

-----Original Message-----
From: Recruiting Coordinator
To: G-man
Sent: Tue Aug 22 19:40:36 2006
Subject: RE:


-----Original Message-----
From: G-man
Sent: Tuesday, August 22, 2006 7:40 PM
To: Recruiting Coordinator
Subject: Re:

Roger wilco

-----Original Message-----
From: Recruiting Coordinator
To: G-man
Sent: Tue Aug 22 19:33:59 2006
Subject: RE:

Ignore all emails - you're doing 4:00 tomorrow!! THANKS!

-----Original Message-----
From: G-man
Sent: Tuesday, August 22, 2006 7:31 PM
To: Recruiting Coordinator
Subject: Re:

You already have me scheduled to meet with you at the same time in the morning about the on-campus interviews I worked on today for you. You must want to clone me.

-----Original Message-----
From: Recruiting Coordinator
To: G-man
Sent: Tue Aug 22 15:21:19 2006

Hi G-Man,

Don't worry about the 4:00 interview I emailed about before. If you can do the morning one, that would be great. Thanks!

Sunday, August 20, 2006

False Imprisonment by the LIRR

Dear Management:

I'm sure my complaint is but one of many lodged by fellow passengers stuck in August 14th's epic delay on the Babylon branch. I understand that the root cause of this catastrophe was, for once, beyond the control of the railroad.

However, there is one issue which was fully within the railroad's purview. After sitting on the 6:27 train to Babylon for over an hour just west of Valley Stream, we were told that the train would platform at Valley Stream and then head west back to Jamaica, where we would board a diesel train to Babylon. The connecting train at Babylon would be held for passengers heading to further points east.

I asked the conductor if we could leave the train at Valley Stream. He denied my request. The train pulled up to the platform and remained there for over five minutes with the doors closed. In fact, LIRR personnel keyed open a door on my car and boarded my train. As far as I can tell, I have a claim for false imprisonment.

In order to successfully prove a claim for false imprisonment, claimant must establish that: (1) the defendant intended to confine him; (2) he was conscious of the confinement; (3) he did not consent to the confinement; and (4) the confinement was not otherwise privileged. Broughton v State of New York, 37 NY2d 451, 457-458, cert den sub nom. Schanbarger v Kellogg, 423 US 929). As in THOMPSON v. THE STATE OF NEW YORK, #2003-019-010, Claim No. 103031, there is most likely no genuine dispute regarding my ability to establish the first three factors and because I was confined without a warrant, I can establish a prima facie case of false imprisonment. (Broughton, 37 NY2d at 458). In other words, when confined against one's will, as here, there is a presumption that such confinement was unlawful, thereby shifting the burden to the LIRR to establish a privilege for the confinement by establishing reasonable cause for said confinement. (Broughton, 37 NY2d at 458; Stratton v City of Albany, 204 AD2d 924). Whether there was reasonable cause to confine me will, of course, depend upon the particular facts and circumstances preceding my confinement.

But that would be difficult for the MTA to prove, given the fact that the train remained at the platform for several minutes, and LIRR personnel boarded the train during that time period, but passengers were unlawfully prohibited from leaving the train, against their will.

You have been put on notice.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Ode to Grandmaster Flash

Saturday, August 12, 2006

Holdem Straight Flush Odds and Strategy

One reason why I haven't posted much lately is that I've been playing a whole bunch of limit poker. I have discovered a repertoire of plays, based totally on probability, which allow me to win playing online limit poker. The basic notion is that one must be very disciplined, play very tight, and not make any pre-flop mistakes to win over the long run.

One thing I've wondered about, probably like many other students of the game, is whether one should pre-flop raise in anticipation of making a straight or flush draw hand? If this is a worthwhile play, one that most pros already know, I should add it to my toolbox of techniques, and make even more money. I scoured the web searching for the answer to this question: what are the odds that, given starting hands of suited connectors (SF), one gap connectors (GF), two suited cards (F) or unsuited connectors (S), of flopping a premium (flush or outside straight) draw. These sites came close and told me what I already knew, the odds of completing the draw by the river, or flopping a flush draw:

But I could not find the answer to my complete flop question, so I calculated it (detailed analysis below). The first three columns of this table shows what the odds are of not flopping, flopping and making a draw hand by the river. The last three columns show many other people must be in the hand in order for it to be profitable. As you can see from the table, unless you have premium connectors (JTo or better), it's never probabilistically worth chasing a straight draw, even if you limp in. The number of people is determined by multiplying the cost of the pre-flop play by probability that you don't flop it, and then divide by the probability that you do make it, to give the probabilistic worth of the play. Then calculate the ratio of the total cost of the play to the amount that you need to win to figure out how many players must be in the hand. The effect of pre-flop raising is that it increases the cost of the hand and the number of people that need to be in the hand in order to break even, but it can greatly increase the probabilistic worth of continuing.




































For example, in a $1/2 game, if I decide to raise from late position with a straight flush draw, the probabilistic worth of raising is $2*81.5%/18.4%/51.2% = $17.3. Since it will cost me $5 total to see the river ($2 preflop + $1 flop + $2 turn), assuming no other raises in the hand, there must be at least 2 other people (17.3/5 - 1) in the hand to build a pot big enough for the pre-flop raise play to be worthwhile. So, if two others limp in ahead, this might be a good, profitable play, assuming the limpers call and I don't end up getting outflushed or on the ignorant end of the straight. If I just limp in, I only need to play heads up ($8.65/4 -1) for this play to work out. You may wish to consider calling a pre-flop raiser from early position as well. And if you have large suited connectors (JT or better), which would give you more outs and a greater chance to draw a winning hand, you might even consider re-raising from late position.

The flop answer is determined by dividing the total number of flops by the number of hands that result in a draw, in any combination. Not considering your opponents cards, there are 50*49*48=117600 different flop hands. In a flush draw, for example, there are three possible combinations: either the first two, the second two or the first and third cards make the draw. Since there are 11 cards left in the suit, the number of draw hands are: 11*10*48+(50-11)*11*10+11*(49-10)*10=11*10*[48+39+39]=13860. Calculating the ratio yields the probability that the flop is a flush draw (including the few rare occurrences of flopping an outright flush): 13860/117600=11.7%. For connectors, there are eight cards on either side, and then eight more on either side, to result in an outside straight draw: 8*8*[48+(50-8)+(49-8)]=8384 flops. For gaps, one card must fill the gap, and then eight can wrap around. For a straight flush, I added the number of straight hands, and subtracted the number of straight flush hands from the total: [13860+8380-572]/117600=21668/117600=18.4%.

Monday, August 07, 2006

Help Wanted - Appellate Attorney

Friday, August 04, 2006

G-man sez, always be faithful to your spouse